Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 4.773620 5.613350 6.541930 7.642742 8.909848 10.320317 12.006908
2025-07-27 3.603178 4.765014 6.188514 8.050362 10.409536 13.286436 17.046042
2025-08-03 2.735363 4.002705 5.697309 8.104069 11.404661 15.738002 21.816533
2025-08-10 2.064596 3.306757 5.101046 7.838891 11.857040 17.472397 25.829404
2025-08-17 1.570041 2.731473 4.530910 7.458778 12.021312 18.754792 29.301574
2025-08-24 1.267014 2.375130 4.203060 7.351197 12.521026 20.519371 33.608837
2025-08-31 1.044059 2.098110 3.940574 7.282996 13.038587 22.327958 38.134878
2025-09-07 0.923812 1.975071 3.909239 7.581417 14.170655 25.199894 44.603673
2025-09-14 0.791975 1.800143 3.750726 7.621855 14.849763 27.377574 50.128750
2025-09-21 0.681945 1.644262 3.597943 7.641726 15.479861 29.515672 55.768600
2025-09-28 0.590169 1.506583 3.455162 7.653365 16.084086 31.650959 61.581752
2025-10-05 0.569566 1.523483 3.629521 8.316190 17.998818 36.319457 72.324113
2025-10-12 0.515240 1.452951 3.612665 8.595769 19.220558 39.873807 81.451005
2025-10-19 0.470472 1.396841 3.619697 8.930098 20.599171 43.871897 91.801411
2025-10-26 0.411231 1.289739 3.491087 8.945771 21.314653 46.648403 100.063878
2025-11-02 0.343510 1.142600 3.239555 8.640291 21.298068 47.954411 105.549667
2025-11-09 0.281652 0.995437 2.959215 8.219531 20.966053 48.568529 109.681998
2025-11-16 0.242618 0.906259 2.811942 8.100080 21.301146 50.604832 116.900468
2025-11-23 0.210975 0.831790 2.690041 8.024883 21.727354 52.869909 124.782652
2025-11-30 0.196901 0.812310 2.719286 8.350563 23.158245 57.470641 138.040780
2025-12-07 0.175673 0.761909 2.648783 8.394626 23.893481 60.566298 148.244896
2025-12-14 0.156450 0.713296 2.574405 8.416289 24.573183 63.592048 158.530931
2025-12-21 0.139362 0.667772 2.500882 8.428985 25.230116 66.619904 169.056914